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India-Pakistan Dispute
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 07:34 AM UTC
last i heard there are 1 million troops at the border

maybe some of you professional military people can answer this;does it make any sense to send all those troops to the boarder if they are going to let a nuke fly?
and are there any anti-missles in place to intercept?
210cav
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 08:21 PM UTC

Quoted Text

maybe some of you professional military people can answer this;does it make any sense to send all those troops to the boarder if they are going to let a nuke fly?
and are there any anti-missles in place to intercept?



Scott--I do not think anyone has a working "anti-missile-missile" despite the advertisements. That said, I believe that we will see a nuclear exchange after one side makes either a terrible miscalculation or has an accidental lauch. The miscalculation will come if either side launches a missile. The type they have can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. How does the would be recepient know what in the warhead? This terrifying scenario will not only cause the annihilation of innocent people, but will also cause untold misery for the rest of the world from the fallout ( physical, emotional, economic, and environmental). If they accidentally launch, there is no calling it back. I heard a fellow from India state the other night on the news that both sides have military's that wnat to use the weapons and that no sane voice exist to stop them. I pray he is wrong.
DJ
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 08:34 PM UTC

Quoted Text


Quoted Text

maybe some of you professional military people can answer this;does it make any sense to send all those troops to the boarder if they are going to let a nuke fly?
and are there any anti-missles in place to intercept?



Scott--I do not think anyone has a working "anti-missile-missile" despite the advertisements. That said, I believe that we will see a nuclear exchange after one side makes either a terrible miscalculation or has an accidental lauch. The miscalculation will come if either side launches a missile. The type they have can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. How does the would be recepient know what in the warhead? This terrifying scenario will not only cause the annihilation of innocent people, but will also cause untold misery for the rest of the world from the fallout ( physical, emotional, economic, and environmental). If they accidentally launch, there is no calling it back. I heard a fellow from India state the other night on the news that both sides have military's that wnat to use the weapons and that no sane voice exist to stop them. I pray he is wrong.
DJ


and how long would it take to recover from the fallout?
how long did the fallout last in japan?how big of an area was infected?
penpen
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 09:21 PM UTC

Quoted Text

and how long would it take to recover from the fallout?
how long did the fallout last in japan?how big of an area was infected?



In 86, there was that terrible accident in Tchernobyl, Ukraine. Infected clouds ran through all of Europe.
Eastern and southern France were hit, even Corsica.
In some of these places, levels are still far from normal even if they have nothing in common with what
you can find in Bielorussia or Ukraine.
Greg
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:18 PM UTC
You guys are all on target:
1. Nobody has a credible missile defense--if we can't do it right now, nobody can.
2. A nuclear exchange looks likely if ANY missiles are launched, either deliberately or on accident. Same thing we went through with the Russians until we installed the Hot Line phones. No way to tell if it is conventional, or accidental, or whatever. I have to assume that the leaders in charge will do what we would have done before the Red Phones: Launch on warning. There is no direct phone link between the leader's residences in Islamabad and New Delhi.
3. Fallout is tough to call. Chernobyl has been mentioned; my guess is contamination would not be quite as widespread. That was a meltdown accident where the fuel was blown apart. In a weapon detonation, most of the fuel is consumed in the explosion. I'm not saying it wouldn't be catastrophic, just that I am not sure that the two situations are directly comparable.
4. Radiated areas in Japan were back to background levels within a few days to weeks, for the most part. The health effects, however, continued for years. Exposure to a nuclear detonation that doesn't kill you but does leave burns means exposure to enough radiation to substantially increase cancer risk in future years.

DJ, your question about what can/should we do is the really tough nettle to grasp. I think we do nothing immediately, because we can't stop a missile and can't react fast enough anyway. Flight times over there are less than ten minutes. Perhaps I am fatalistic and cynical, but I fully expect these two intellectual groups to expend a couple of warheads on each other. All we can do is likely to be after the fact, in the mode of "I told you so". Then start intensive diplomacy while both sides are still in the shock of devastation. Something tells me they need to learn this lesson for themselves. Like the rest of you, though, I wonder how to keep it from getting totally out of hand. Nukes are frightful beyond comprehension and not really battlefield weapons at all--they are political ones. But they can be survived, if one assumes something less than total annihilation. These two don't have enough weapons to do that to each other, let alone seriously threaten anyone else. With the two this close to the abyss, I wonder where the Japanese are...surely they, who have been on the receiving end before, should be counseling restraint.
Greg
avukich
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:21 PM UTC

Quoted Text

and how long would it take to recover from the fallout?
how long did the fallout last in japan?how big of an area was infected?



I don't think you can compare the fallout of today's nuke's with those used on Japan. They are vastly different weapons that are much more powerful. I certainly hope that cool heads prevail over there because if nuke's fly, there will be no winners. Pakistan has little hope of surviving a nuclear exchange with India and India's greatest cities will be toast. I read just recently a military breakdown of a likely nuclear scenario. It said Pakistan's army is much more advanced and better trained than India's, but India would win by shear weight of numbers which would cause Pakistan to resort to using its 16 nukes, causing India to retaliate with its 48 nukes. 48 nukes would completely obliterate Pakistan and the 16 of Pakistans would destroy all of the large cities in Northern India (Southern India is out of range of Pakistanni missles) including Bombay and New Dehli. The rest of the world woudl surely suffer from Economic, Political, and Environmental fallout from such a scenario. Like I said, "No Winners".
Bravo-Comm
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:36 PM UTC
Here is something that occurred to me this morning: what if in all this confusion and disruption; If a group of Al-Queda terrorist were to get their hands on a moble launch system and fired one of Pakistans weapons at the U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. ?? Off Color perhaps: And not very likey. But then someone slamming a couple of Passenger Planes into the World Trade Center Towers was not considered very likely either. UNTIL LAST YEAR THAT IS !!! Just Another Thought To Consider.

DAGGER-1 " When Science Fails, Brute Force Wins"
Greg
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:39 PM UTC
I agree, Adam, no winners...But I have to doubt that all of them would fly, unless both sides chose to launch everything at once--suicide. Rather, I think one or two fly. Think rattlesnake; trying to warn you off. Assuming both capitals get hit, I then wonder if the C3 infrastructure is redundant enough to retain launch control. I doubt that unit commanders would launch on their own. At least I hope not. If the communications with the high command goes out it would seem to me that the game is over, both sides just lost. I wouldn't want to be responsible for launching more warheads into the catastrophe. Also, both sides need these weapons (they think) as a deterrent. Use them all, no matter what outcome, and there is no more deterrence. I'm not sure they are thinking in terms of total annihilation, although that is what they would get. I think both sides would wish to hold warheads in reserve for the "future".
Greg
avukich
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:44 PM UTC

Quoted Text

But I have to doubt that all of them would fly, unless both sides chose to launch everything at once--suicide. Rather, I think one or two fly.



Greg -- you are probably right. That analysis that I read was a worst case scenario. I don't see either side launching all of their nukes and quite possibly if they did, some would malfunction. Realistically, if they begin to fly, I would bet on 5 - 10 going off.
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:49 PM UTC
1 is too many
avukich
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:52 PM UTC

Quoted Text

1 is too many



No arguments here. These two countries better think real hard about this. They are still 3rd world countries that are struggling to improve themselves. How long would it take them to recover from the devastation of nuclear war with each other? My guess is one hell of a long time.
210cav
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 10:55 PM UTC
What I find most rewarding in our discussion is the mind boggling gymnastics we perform because our culture and society can not understand why anyone would ever even think about using nukes. If Rob is correct (and I fear he understates the effects) potentially Pakistan disappears and India reverts to the stone age. And, the rest of the world suffering ranges from an increase of cancer to global warming. There appears to be no voice of sanity within either country saying "whoa! is this really worth it?" What would cause you to openly threaten to go nuclear?
DJ
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:00 PM UTC

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What I find most rewarding in our discussion is the mind boggling gymnastics we perform because our culture and society can not understand why anyone would ever even think about using nukes. If Rob is correct (and I fear he understates the effects) potentially Pakistan disappears and India reverts to the stone age. And, the rest of the world suffering ranges from an increase of cancer to global warming. There appears to be no voice of sanity within either country saying "whoa! is this really worth it?" What would cause you to openly threaten to go nuclear?
DJ


the only thing we have to compare it to is japan 1945,however i am sure that they are more powerful now than they were then
avukich
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:03 PM UTC

Quoted Text

the only thing we have to compare it to is japan 1945,however i am sure that they are more powerful now than they were then



you bet they are. the bombs dropped on Japan were not even 1 megaton.
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:06 PM UTC

Quoted Text


Quoted Text

the only thing we have to compare it to is japan 1945,however i am sure that they are more powerful now than they were then



you bet they are. the bombs dropped on Japan were not even 1 megaton.



we need to get rid of these @#$%&* things
Greg
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:15 PM UTC
Amen, Scott. But it takes time, and trust. We barely have that with Russia after 50 years. Lots of other adversaries aren't even close. Adam is right; possibly a dozen would actually go off. But each is probably 100-200 kilotons--Hiroshima was 20. Utter ruin. The choices seem to be mutual terror for long enough that reason eventually prevails (like us with Russia) or actual use of the things because they are viewed as military weapons and not political pawns. EWeventually escaped that, but these two developing nations might not. In part, it might be that the poor conditions there lead some to believe that they don't have much to lose.

Yeah, we've got to get rid of the things. Something tells me that one inocluation sixty years ago was not sufficient to cure the disease, and another oubreak is likely before we finally take the cure....I hope to God I'm wrong on that.
Greg
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:20 PM UTC

Quoted Text

Amen, Scott. But it takes time, and trust. We barely have that with Russia after 50 years. Lots of other adversaries aren't even close. Adam is right; possibly a dozen would actually go off. But each is probably 100-200 kilotons--Hiroshima was 20. Utter ruin. The choices seem to be mutual terror for long enough that reason eventually prevails (like us with Russia) or actual use of the things because they are viewed as military weapons and not political pawns. EWeventually escaped that, but these two developing nations might not. In part, it might be that the poor conditions there lead some to believe that they don't have much to lose.

Yeah, we've got to get rid of the things. Something tells me that one inocluation sixty years ago was not sufficient to cure the disease, and another oubreak is likely before we finally take the cure....I hope to God I'm wrong on that.
Greg


maybe the world will wake up and realize these things have to go
sniper
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:24 PM UTC

Quoted Text

Nukes are frightful beyond comprehension and not really battlefield weapons at all--they are political ones.



I agree with Greg on this about the actual military value of nukes. If there were to be an exchange in this region, I believe it would be one side trying to destroy the others nukes while trying to protect their own. No way can Pakistan hope to defeat India in a straight-on exchange.

Nuclear weapons are very valuable to these countries to protect their interests and be players on the world stage.

As far as nukes being the baddest things in an arsenel, I would have to think that biologicals are even worse. There's a decent chance of surviving a limited nuclear exchange but some of those bad bugs rumored to exist make you shutter. I know that the US and USSR were (are) working on (and have) things that would be released after a nuclear exchange to kill off any remaining populations. Of course, biologicals don't play into the India/Pakistan scenario.

Not that I'm downplaying the severity of nukes, just that we have found a lot of ways to kill ourselves. We must also consider that the concept of MAD may have helped to deter an exchange during the Cold War. Again, not that that applies to what's going on in the East today...

Steve
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:25 PM UTC

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It appears that two Nations, incapable of making an electric toaster, are prepared to hurl nuclear weapons at each other over one of the most desolate areas on the earth. Start this by posing the question: "What can and should the US do about it?"
DJ



This is an interesting thread, and I wanted to go back to DJ's original question. I feel to understand why India and Pakistan are threatening (and assumed willing) to hurl nuclear weapons at each other - we should first try to understand what would make us want to hurl nuclear weapons at an aggressor, and what has prevented us from doing it thus far.

Is the loss of an aircraft carrier reason enough? How's about the fans and teams playing in a Super Bowl? The loss of the World Trade Center and a portion of the Pentagon wasn't enough - despite our fervor and old MAD doctrine - to send out the Tridents and level an entire country. What would be our "trigger"?

Both sides are intelligent and passionate enough to have built these weapons. They understand the ramifications of using them. They have been able to put them in the back of a cargo truck and drive it across the border(s) for some time now. They haven't done so - and it isn't totally because of foreign intervention, good-intentions, or some first world ideology. In determining what might be our trigger, we could possibly see their trigger.

Only then can we determine a course of action to take to help them through their crisis. What I feel would be valuable is for the two largest, and most powerful, and longest-standing nuclear opponents to join them at the table and talk about "triggers" and what has kept both sides from pushing the button - at that point the ideologies become relevant and meaningful for all concerned.

The solution to any problem can always be found inside one's self. There's a reason why they haven't gone atomic on each other - yet - and I think the solution to this crisis is that same reason. What should, if anything, the US do in this situation? Help find that reason inside of them - and help them to remember it. Not as the World's Policeman - but because we're all neighbors and brothers on this planet.

Just some late thoughts to DJ's original question...

Gunnie
sourkraut
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Posted: Thursday, May 30, 2002 - 11:29 PM UTC

Quoted Text


Quoted Text

It appears that two Nations, incapable of making an electric toaster, are prepared to hurl nuclear weapons at each other over one of the most desolate areas on the earth. Start this by posing the question: "What can and should the US do about it?"
DJ



This is an interesting thread, and I wanted to go back to DJ's original question. I feel to understand why India and Pakistan are threatening (and assumed willing) to hurl nuclear weapons at each other - we should first try to understand what would make us want to hurl nuclear weapons at an aggressor, and what has prevented us from doing it thus far.

Is the loss of an aircraft carrier reason enough? How's about the fans and teams playing in a Super Bowl? The loss of the World Trade Center and a portion of the Pentagon wasn't enough - despite our fervor and old MAD doctrine - to send out the Tridents and level an entire country. What would be our "trigger"?

Both sides are intelligent and passionate enough to have built these weapons. They understand the ramifications of using them. They have been able to put them in the back of a cargo truck and drive it across the border(s) for some time now. They haven't done so - and it isn't totally because of foreign intervention, good-intentions, or some first world ideology. In determining what might be our trigger, we could possibly see their trigger.

Only then can we determine a course of action to take to help them through their crisis. What I feel would be valuable is for the two largest, and most powerful, and longest-standing nuclear opponents to join them at the table and talk about "triggers" and what has kept both sides from pushing the button - at that point the ideologies become relevant and meaningful for all concerned.

The solution to any problem can always be found inside one's self. There's a reason why they haven't gone atomic on each other - yet - and I think the solution to this crisis is that same reason. What should, if anything, the US do in this situation? Help find that reason inside of them - and help them to remember it. Not as the World's Policeman - but because we're all neighbors and brothers on this planet.

Just some late thoughts to DJ's original question...

Gunnie


i would like to argue this point,but i cant
Ranger74
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Posted: Friday, May 31, 2002 - 12:21 AM UTC
Whoa, this thread has exploded since I looked here yesterday afternoon. I have a few observations, based on training from the Chemical Corps and reading about British involvement on the Indian Subcontinent.

First, Nukes and fallout. Chernoybal was in effect a "ground burst" the worst for fallout as the surrounding soil is irradiated and scattered to the winds. The WWII US bombs were high air bursts which have little to no fallout hazard, the higher the burst the less soil disturbance. So, depending on the technology and aims of the two countries will depend the type of burst. They should both be able to develop air burst capability. The spread of fallout, if low air burst or ground burst will depend on several factors: size of weapon, the bigger yeild the higher contamination is thrown into the atmosphere; the prevailing winds at the time of the conflict, particulary the tradewinds; and the Himalaya Mountains will be a factor as they may cause a lot of fallout to be trapped at the base of the mountains, possibly saving China from the spread (this does not bode well for Bangladesh, Burma, etc.)

Second, India was a great empire in its own right in the distant past, before Alexander the Great swept through. The Arryans controlled large tracts of what is now India. India, and Pakistan, to a lesser extent, are very much like the Balkans and the Caucasus, a major crossroads of civilization, resulting in tens, if not hunderds of different religions, cultures and languages living in close proximity. I tend to remember hearing that India has more different languages spoken within its borders than any other nation on Earth! Could a major war, particulary one wth a nuclear exchange spell the end of India as a nation? Could it fragment as has happened in the Balkans, Cacausus (?), and to a lesser extent in some african nations?

The desinegration fo the nation of India would have long term implications for stability in southern Asia. It is extremely important that these two regional powers be separated and that the terrorism in Kashmir be controlled.

On another throught, there was an article in a recent issue of Military Review concerning high altitude warfare. If the UN should intervene there will be two major problems for the peace keepers: First will be the terrorists who know the land and are acclimated to the altitude. Second, will be the effects of altitude. It will require two to three times as many troops to operate at the altitudes involved in Kashmir, the US has no troops currently prepared (and acclimated) to operate for extended periods at those heights (very few other countries are so prepared). In fact India and Pakistan probably have the best trained mountain troops in the world, at this time.
210cav
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Posted: Friday, May 31, 2002 - 12:25 AM UTC
Scott--put on your thinking cap and let us know how you feel about the topic. This is not one of those quizzes where someone has the correct answers. I am totally mystified by why anyone, anywhere, for any reason would even contemplate employing the Doomsday weapons. As my friend Gunnie states rather eloquently what is the trigger point? Hell, what if they loose the in the Soceer Worl Cup matches? Ridding the earth of these weapons is about as realistic a goal as seeing the end of communism.....wait a minute, anything is possible!
DJ
sourkraut
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Posted: Friday, May 31, 2002 - 12:32 AM UTC
india prepares to load warheads on missles
sourkraut
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Posted: Friday, May 31, 2002 - 12:33 AM UTC
U.S.-tells americans to get out of the region
sourkraut
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Posted: Friday, May 31, 2002 - 12:35 AM UTC
london-tells brits to get out of india


god help us